Lift in global values drive up prices

Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) July wheat futures ended the week to Friday night up 46 US cents per bushel (USc/bu) or seven per cent to 697 USc/bu.

In Australian dollar terms, the move higher was 8pc over the week thanks to a near 1pc fall in the Australian dollar versus the US dollar helping to make Australian grain more export competitive.

This is the highest-level CBoT wheat futures have been since July 2023 in Australian dollar terms.

Similarly, higher protein Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) wheat futures have rallied to levels not seen since September 2023 in Australian dollar terms.

The moves higher in international wheat prices are also represented in other global price benchmarks such as indices created by global independent analyst Argus AgriMarkets.

Argus indicate the mid-point of Ukrainian 11.5pc protein wheat quoted on a free-on-board basis has now rallied A$80/t from the lows in March to be at levels not seen since May 2023.

Russian 12.5pc protein wheat prices have had the same increase of A$80/t since March in Australian dollar terms according to Argus.

The mid-point of milling wheat quotes into South East Asia on a cost-and-freight (CFR) basis by Argus has rallied A$70/t from the March lows and is back to January 2024 levels.

The improvement in international prices have been driven by deteriorating crop conditions in many of the major global grain suppliers.

Russian wheat production estimates are now in the low 80 million tonnes (mmt).

This compares with the United States Department of Agriculture's estimate of 91.5mmt, and last year's 92mmt.

French soft wheat is rated at 63pc in good-to-excellent condition by France AgriMer, the lowest since 2020 and down from 93pc at the same time last year.

Crop conditions could improve, although as we get closer to northern hemisphere harvests, there is less opportunity for crops to get better and implies the floor in 2024 prices also increases.

This is being reflected in both global and local Australian end-users actively trying to own more grain to provide cover for their expected use through 2024 and pushing prices higher as a result.

Last week 126 buyers made more than 10,700 searches for grain offered for sale on Clear Grain Exchange, with 49 buyers matching grower offer prices to purchase grain.

Demand for all grains is strong and growers can show all buyers the price they want for their grain.

For more information or to see what values are trading contact Clear Grain Exchange on 1800 000 410 or support@cgx.com.au