Hot and dry spring ahead according to BOM spring forecast

For large swathes of the country, including Victoria, southern South Australia and south-west WA, there is less than a 20 per cent chance of exceeding the median September to November rainfall with only north-west Western Australia and the south coast of NSW at neutral or better odds of getting more rain than the median.

The temperature outlook is even more strongly certain of above average temperatures with nearly all the country an 80pc or above chances of warmer than normal weather.

Senior climatologist at BOM Lynette Bettio said the long range forecast was influenced by a number of factors, including sea surface temperatures in the Pacific similar to those experienced in an El Nino, the potential for an Indian Ocean Dipole positive event forming and record warm oceans globally.

"Spring is likely to bring warmer days and reduced rainfall, following on from a winter that has been much drier than average in many areas, particularly the south-west and east," Dr Bettio said.

"While there were some patches of Australia that were above average rainfall for winter, mainly on the back of unseasonably wet conditions in late June, Australia as a whole was 8 per cent below average rainfall for winter."

"There is still good soil moisture in the north and central parts of the country but the soil is drying out in the east and parts of the south."

Generally there is a good buffer against drought with most of the nation's major water storages above 80pc of capacity, however Dr Bettio said there were some already below 50pc, primarily in Queensland.

She said temperature-wise it had also been very warm.

The national mean temperature for winter is currently tracking to be 1.54°C above the 1961-1990 average, which would make it Australia's warmest winter since 1996.

In the northern hemisphere there were the hottest temperatures ever recorded in many areas, meaning July was the hottest month globally ever.

The BOM continues to stop short of calling an official El Nino, with the measure remaining at alert, or a 70 per cent chance of an El Nino forming.

Climate models also suggest a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely in spring.

The last two weeks have seen the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index above the positive IOD threshold of +0.4 degrees.

However, the BOM said several more weeks of positive IOD values are needed to have more confidence on whether a positive IOD event is emerging.

Bureau of Meteorology climate services manager Karl Braganza said there was a significant contrast in climatic conditions this spring compared to last year when Australia had its second-wettest spring on record.

He also cautioned about the increased fire risk due to the hotter and drier conditions likely.

Australia's fire agencies have identified an increased risk of fire this spring for regions in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory as part of their spring bushfire outlook.

Communities in these regions are urged to prepare and review their bushfire plans.

Other areas have normal fire risk.

"The recent wildfires in Canada and Hawaii underscore risks that Australians are familiar with, in particular the catastrophic potential of fires that can occur near urban areas during periods of low rainfall," Dr Braganza said.

The BOM's historical accuracy for forecasts is at its peak in spring and early summer.