WA behind in cattle herd rebuild

However, the pace of the rebuild will vary across the country, underpinned by a third year of favourable seasonal conditions for southern Australia, according to Meat & Livestock Australia's (MLA) first cattle industry projections update for 2022.

Western Australia's northern pastoralists are relying on successive favourable wet seasons over the next two years, to deliver the core breeding herd and an opportunity to increase joining percentages and branding rates.

MLA market information manager Stephen Bignell said, compared to other States, WA was only one-year into the three-year rebuild.

This was off the back of dry seasonal conditions two years ago, followed by increased rainfall last year.

"Northern WA didn't really have a drench post-drought until the 2022 wet season," Mr Bignell said.

"I know Broome recorded more than 300 millimetres of rainfall this week, so that rebuild will start this year."

Meanwhile, herds in the southern States of New South Wales and Victoria were expected to mature favourably with large numbers of high-quality young breeding females and heifers joined to deliver a large cohort of calves for spring.

"Females will be well nourished from abundant and good quality pastures promoting favourable growing conditions," Mr Bignell said.

"While the southern States are accelerating their rebuilds, success in the north will be ongoing, albeit at a slower pace."

In terms of production, the projections reported an increase in supply would result in an increase in slaughter numbers by 11pc to reach 6.7m this year.

By 2024, slaughter volumes are forecast to be 31pc higher than last year's levels, reaching 7.85m head.

However, despite this slaughter volumes will still remain below the 10-year average.

It is hoped COVID-19 related affects on processor capacity will be minimised by the end of quarter one 2022.

Labour, as well as international freight and logistics were expected to have a significant impact on cattle slaughter numbers and supply this year.

In terms of supply chain and logistics, the issue covers both the difficulty in delivering product to the desired market and the cost of freight.

According to the projections, ongoing disruption, initially stemming from COVID-19, has seen continued delays and large price increases in shipping routes globally.

Shipping costs worldwide increased by 434pc in 2021,with many ships initially earmarked for smaller routes redirected to larger ones, while shipping companies rapidly raised prices and changed schedules to meet market conditions.

Compounding the situation, between 2018/19 and 2020/21 there was a 39pc increase in average on-berth hours at Australian ports and a 46pc increase in average idle hours.

Meanwhile, COVID-19 isolation measures have caused acute short-term labour shortages across the supply chain including in meat processing plants.

"Labour and supply chains will have a huge impact on how much production can lift this year," Mr Bignell said.

"There's also the piece on getting product out of WA ports, which is going to be something to watch.

"Supply disruptions and bottlenecks from a shipping perspective are ongoing issues."

Additionally, the costs involved with training and accessing staff were among the key issues reported in the latest cattle projections.

Mr Bignell said there would be upward pressure on wages, as WA's cattle industry competed with the likes of freight, mining and construction to secure a workforce.

He said the industry also faced training challenges this year, as it takes at least eight months to one year to train new employees to the appropriate level to process higher volumes of cattle.

Looking at supply, WA's yarding volumes were reported as stronger by 5pc or 29,000-head.

This was said to demonstrate the producer intent to capitalise on an improving market, as strong autumn and winter rainfall was recorded across the State.

Feeder buyers are dominating purchases for young cattle in WA, buying 64pc of the total yarding.

"With increased supply in WA's WYCI (Western Young Cattle Indicator), the strength of the lotfeeder market demonstrates the demand for feeder cattle in the State," reported the cattle industry projections.

"At 32 cents, the restocker premium is significantly tighter than the Eastern States, as the average restocker price for the WYCI sits at 1130c and lotfeeder prices at 1098 cents per kilogram carcase weight."

Nationally, production is expected to hit 2.45m tonnes carcase weight in 2024.

Mr Bignell said this would be a record even higher than 2019, when the east was offloading higher numbers of cattle due to drought.

He said despite headwinds and challenges remaining, the beef industry was experiencing market conditions and confidence never seen before at a producer level.

"Overall, the industry is in an incredible positive position and will continue to deliver high value, high quality Australian red meat to both emerging and established global markets," he said.

CATTLE transfers east have increased by a mammoth 2014 per cent in the past two years, driven by Eastern States' restocker activity.

According to the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD), cattle transfers east via Ceduna, South Australia, in December last year, were up 30pc (10,352 head) on December 2020 figures (7985-head).

Compared to the same time in 2019, when 514-head were trucked east - transfers increased by 2014pc.

DPIRD reported 2020-2021 as "uncharacteristically high" transfer years.

From January to December 2021, 56,600 head moved east via Ceduna down 36pc year-on-year from 88,500 head in 2020.

This does not include any cattle which moved through northern borders that year.

In 2019, only 6200 head of cattle passed through the Ceduna checkpoint.

This figure reflected the prolonged dry conditions farmers in the east were battling.

Want weekly news highlights delivered to your inbox? Sign up to the Farm Weekly newsletter.